Things I've learned about Garageband.com

[Phlipper]

Originally Posted by brandondrury

That's a fairly optimistic view!

Brandon

hear hear! D'you know how easy it is to spot another band at a gig? They're the ones with their arms folded, standing off to the side! Man, those cats are bitches!!

[jdaug]

except the talent scouts there probably have a better ear for recognizing potential in amateur recordings.

That's a fairly optimistic view!

I guess its wishful thinking. I assume that A&R people and music supervisors can recognize raw talent or a potential hit song better than the average Joe listening on garageband. maybe not.

[Vulconizer]

Originally Posted by jdaug

I guess its wishful thinking. I assume that A&R people and music supervisors can recognize raw talent or a potential hit song better than the average Joe listening on garageband. maybe not.

More likely the hit song potential and/or the talent to be molded into what the A&R guys think will be selling in the first quarter of next year.

[brandondrury]

the talent to be molded into what the A&R guys think will be selling in the first quarter of next year.

The baffling thing about this is when have the A&R guys ever been right? Pretty much every mega star band (the cream of the crop stars make up 100% of the profit for the labels) was the kind of person would never expect to do well.

I think this is the major flaw of the whole damn system....people trying to predict things they have absolutely no business predicting.

Brandon

[Phlipper]

Originally Posted by brandondrury

The baffling thing about this is when have the A&R guys ever been right? Pretty much every mega star band (the cream of the crop stars make up 100% of the profit for the labels) was the kind of person would never expect to do well.

I think this is the major flaw of the whole damn system....people trying to predict things they have absolutely no business predicting.

Brandon

I agree with this too... the real 'stars' are always the ones that have resisted being moulded - but the labels can't seem to learn their lessons very well

[richiebee]

Originally Posted by brandondrury

I think this is the major flaw of the whole damn system....people trying to predict things they have absolutely no business predicting.

Lets not forget that its a business. All businesses make projections and predictions. I think its true that the predictors should be doing their job better, but I think its a little naive to think that a business (whatever it is) should not be trying to do projections.

R.

[Phlipper]

Originally Posted by richiebee

Lets not forget that its a business. All businesses make projections and predictions. I think its true that the predictors should be doing their job better, but I think its a little naive to think that a business (whatever it is) should not be trying to do projections.

R.

Well... from my experience (and I've spent most of my life in business for myself), the projections issue with businesses is just as bad. Banks, investors, govt. agencies etc. don't really pay attention to the cashflow forecasts etc. they want data presented in such a way that they can tick their boxes.
For a business just starting out, a cashflow projection is usually an exercise in complete bollocks!

[richiebee]

Originally Posted by Phlipper

For a business just starting out, a cashflow projection is usually an exercise in complete bollocks!

Which is probably why so many businesses fail in their first year.

R.

[brandondrury]

I think its true that the predictors should be doing their job better, but I think its a little naive to think that a business (whatever it is) should not be trying to do projections.

Okay, my true thoughts may have not came out right. I was trying to cram too much into one sentence.

I think it's safe to make a few assumptions (some of these are already facts).

- The mega stars make 100% of the money for the label.

- Picking a mega star is extremely difficult to do with any hint of consistency. It's essentially a lottery ticket.

- The best way to win the lottery is to buy as many tickets as possible. Music isn't exactly as random as winning the lottery. It's pretty obvious I'm not going to be the next Jon Bon Jovi or whatever.

So with these things in mind, it seems that the smart strategy would be to figure out a way to have as many likely lottery tickets in your pool as possible. Very few bands ever get to release more than one album anymore. It only takes dropping a few Bon Jovi's after their first release and then lose the subsequent 100,000,000 in album sales to go from being a robo successful label to being an out of business label.

I guess people can make the assumption that there A&R guys know what they are doing, but I don't agree. I think that 95% of them don't have a damn clue. I think someone's uncle gives their nephew with a degree in English and an ipod a job. I've heard too many stories like this in past from dudes who've dealt with them. (Maybe they lied, I guess).

It just seems the random, chaotic nature of the way the real money makers explode is not something you should prevent. Maybe it's not the A&R guy's fault. Maybe it's the guy who still writes the checks for the $1,000,000 albums when a $50,000 album would sound just as good (this is debatable, too).

Brandon

[jdaug]

Fortunately, thanks to the internet and technology that makes decent recordings possible for the unsigned artist on a budget, the only road to commercial success is not sucking a record producers cock in a west Hollywood parking lot or performing in bars and high school auditoriums for 10 years before getting discovered.

Im not a successful musician (its still a hobby for me), but I would bet there are artists out there who have achieved commercial success just by having their music on the internet, at the right place and the right time, and were discovered by accident, without first having had to shell out money out of pocket for pro studio time or marketing, paying or sucking for face time with AR people, or even playing a single live show. All of those things certainly help your chances, but I think success is now more possible without those. Insert your definition of success here. My definition is being able to make stable, long term income which supports your chosen lifestyle by doing what you enjoy.