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I think its true that the predictors should be doing their job better, but I think its a little naive to think that a business (whatever it is) should not be trying to do projections.
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Okay, my true thoughts may have not came out right. I was trying to cram too much into one sentence.
I think it's safe to make a few assumptions (some of these are already facts).
- The mega stars make 100% of the money for the label.
- Picking a mega star is extremely difficult to do with any hint of consistency. It's essentially a lottery ticket.
- The best way to win the lottery is to buy as many tickets as possible. Music isn't exactly as random as winning the lottery. It's pretty obvious I'm not going to be the next Jon Bon Jovi or whatever.
So with these things in mind, it seems that the smart strategy would be to figure out a way to have as many likely lottery tickets in your pool as possible. Very few bands ever get to release more than one album anymore. It only takes dropping a few Bon Jovi's after their first release and then lose the subsequent 100,000,000 in album sales to go from being a robo successful label to being an out of business label.
I guess people can make the assumption that there A&R guys know what they are doing, but I don't agree. I think that 95% of them don't have a damn clue. I think someone's uncle gives their nephew with a degree in English and an ipod a job. I've heard too many stories like this in past from dudes who've dealt with them. (Maybe they lied, I guess).
It just seems the random, chaotic nature of the way the real money makers explode is not something you should prevent. Maybe it's not the A&R guy's fault. Maybe it's the guy who still writes the checks for the $1,000,000 albums when a $50,000 album would sound just as good (this is debatable, too).
Brandon